Cotton production continues slide in 2019/10 
 

USDA’s first 2019/10 world production forecast is 106.5 million bales, down 1.3 percent from the 2019/09 estimate. If realized, 2019/10 production will be the third consecutive year of decline in world output. China is expected to account for most of the global production decline in 2019/10 with a crop forecast at 33 million bales, down 2.8 million bales (8 percent) from 2019/09. Production in 2019/10 is also expected to decline in Brazil to 5.5 million bales (5 percent) and in Uzbekistan to 4.5 million bales (8 percent) from the 2019/09 crop estimate.

 The impact of these declines on global production is expected to be slightly cushioned by rebounds in Australia and India. As shown in figure, the 2019/10 Australia crop is forecast at 1.9 million bales, up 31 percent from 2019/09. The prolonged drought in Australia in recent years has been giving way to increased precipitation and replenished irrigation supplies. In India, the 2019/10 crop is forecast at 25 million bales, up almost 9 percent from the 2019/09 crop estimate. This unprecedented output in India is expected to result from a combination of continued government support, increased area and yield, and the extensive use of the better yielding Bt cotton varieties.

                              2019/10棉花产量下降
      美国农业部首次预测2019/10棉花产量是1亿650万包，与2019/09年度的预测相比，下降了1.3个百分点。如果预测准确的话，2019/10年度的产量将是连续第三年下降。中国的棉花产量在占大部分，预期将达到33万包，相比2019/09年度降低了2.8万包，下降8个百分点。巴西2019/10年度的产量为550万包，降低5个百分点。乌兹别克斯坦的产量为450万包，下降8个点。

      产量下降对澳大利亚和印度经济反弹造成冲击。2019/10澳洲棉花预期产值有190万包，增长31%。由于长期干旱，澳大利亚近年来全力增加降雨量和补充灌溉用品。印度预计2019/10年度作物预测产量是25万包，与2019/09年度的估计值相比，增幅为9%。 这一史无前例的产量预测得到印度政府的清理支持，增加棉花种植面积，增加棉花产量，运用效益更好的Bt棉花种子。